Monday, February 01, 2010
EURO/GBP - 1.141
US$/GBP - 1.586
CHF/GBP - 1.680
CAN$/GBP - 1.699
AUS$/GBP - 1.801
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Following better than expected US GDP figures last week, sterling has dropped below the 1.60 mark against US dollar but remains above the 1.1450 level against euro as concerns over Euro zone economies continue over Greece. The week ahead we have the Bank of England rate meeting on Thursday.
The Bank is expected to keep rates on hold, but following the sluggish figures for fourth quarter growth in the economy, the key news revolves around whether the BoE will increase emergency funding from £200bn. Any increase should see sterling suffer and any move to end the programme should see sterling strengthen.
This week we have the purchasing managers indices for both UK manufacturing and services. The manufacturing data due out today will give further insight into how the UK economy is doing.
There is the potential for significant currency movements this week so if you have transfers to make it makes sense to speak to a specialist sooner rather than later so as to ensure you avoid losing out.
In the Euro zone, the Greek saga continues and it hit the lowest level against the US dollar since July 2009. The difference between interest rates on Greek bonds and German bonds is creeping higher –the Greek government is having to pay more to borrow money as demand drops. Whilst Greek GDP accounts for less than 5% of Euro zone output, the concern is that this issue will spill over into other economies and weaken the currency further.
In the US, whilst GDP data increased on Friday, the big news on the calendar is unemployment data out on Friday. This is expected to show a slight improvement, but many are forecasting significant amendments to previous data to show that the US labour market is in a worse position than first thought. This is interesting, as in the US, unemployment ‘insurance’ (like UK Job Seeker’s Allowance) runs out after 6 months, so the ‘true’ figure of unemployment may be a lot higher than the 10% ‘official’ figure.
Elsewhere, Australian house prices outperformed expectations and as a result, the market is expecting a 0.25% rate rise at the next meeting of the Australian central bank. This is likely to see sterling weaken against Australian dollar so start looking now if you need to make payments into Australian dollars.
Remember to minimise the chance of losing money due to adverse movements in the markets by speaking to a currency specialist as early as possible. Call 0808 163 0102 or +44 (0) 207 898 0541 from outside the UK or fill out our quote form: http://www.smartcurrencyexchange.com/quote.aspx
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